Apparently, Libby's legal defense is starting with the scapegoat argument. It surprises and amazes the New York Times. The lawyers say that the GOP wanted to protect Rove, so Libby was sacrificed. Since this is exactly what a lot of people were saying when he was indicted, they may be able to convince the jury.
Of course, it would help if the charges had a little more to do with the leak. He's actually being charged with perjury and obstruction of justice. Whether he was the fall guy for the leak or not, he still may have lied to a grand jury.
Libby's lawyer mentions a note Cheney supposedly wrote which read: "Not going to protect one staffer + sacrifice the guy who was asked to stick his neck in the meat grinder because of the incompetence of others."
I don't know if there will be a conviction, but I do know that Libby's defense is going to avoid the actual charges and make this about him as a fall guy. But, then, anyone other than the NYT shouldn't be too surprised by that.